Electronics Industry to Recover Sustainably in 2010, Says Gartner
[2009-06-29]
Electronic equipment markets should begin a recovery in Q4 2009, enabling the electronics industry to enter into a sustained recovery in the second half of 2010 with a reacceleration in sales in 2011, according to Gartner Inc.
"Almost all sectors of the electronic equipment market are still declining, and we will need to see markets hit bottom before we see the waves of recovery and a rebound to positive growth,"said Klaus Rinnen, managing vice president at Gartner''s semiconductor manufacturing group. "The wider process of rebounding will occur over a period of approximately two years."
Although the PC market is already reaching the bottom of its growth pattern, Rinnen said the majority of electronics segments will not reach bottom until Q2 2009, and until then, uncertainty will remain high and visibility low. He also suggested that there is a possibility of a W-shaped recovery pattern that, while less likely, could push sustainable growth into 2011.
"Although there are signs that the market will improve over the next few years, we do not expect semiconductor sales to regain the 2007 peak sales levels during the current five-year forecast period, ending in 2013," said Jim Tully, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner.
It is anticipated that PCs and mobile phones, as the "bread and butter" of the electronics industry, will be among the lead segments to bottom out and start the charge for the recovery. However, the research firm warned that although improvement in electronics inventories, in combination with government stimulus, will likely put a halt to the current slide in the market, the question is one of timing between these two events.
If economic growth and government stimulus are slow to materialize, the industry could see a demand and production lift followed by a languishing demand period and even a risk of overproduction in mid-2009. Such events could not only delay the bottoming of segments but also force a second and lower bottom for the PC market.
"The semiconductor industry must prepare itself for significant changes in consumer buying behavior, technology demand patterns and the supplier landscape," said Tully. "The current recession is pushing many suppliers to the brink of ruin, and several will not survive. The emerging supply chain will be leaner and stronger, but while it reshapes to the new market realities, industry participants are exposed to considerable vendor vulnerabilities."
"Almost all sectors of the electronic equipment market are still declining, and we will need to see markets hit bottom before we see the waves of recovery and a rebound to positive growth,"said Klaus Rinnen, managing vice president at Gartner''s semiconductor manufacturing group. "The wider process of rebounding will occur over a period of approximately two years."
Although the PC market is already reaching the bottom of its growth pattern, Rinnen said the majority of electronics segments will not reach bottom until Q2 2009, and until then, uncertainty will remain high and visibility low. He also suggested that there is a possibility of a W-shaped recovery pattern that, while less likely, could push sustainable growth into 2011.
"Although there are signs that the market will improve over the next few years, we do not expect semiconductor sales to regain the 2007 peak sales levels during the current five-year forecast period, ending in 2013," said Jim Tully, vice president and distinguished analyst at Gartner.
It is anticipated that PCs and mobile phones, as the "bread and butter" of the electronics industry, will be among the lead segments to bottom out and start the charge for the recovery. However, the research firm warned that although improvement in electronics inventories, in combination with government stimulus, will likely put a halt to the current slide in the market, the question is one of timing between these two events.
If economic growth and government stimulus are slow to materialize, the industry could see a demand and production lift followed by a languishing demand period and even a risk of overproduction in mid-2009. Such events could not only delay the bottoming of segments but also force a second and lower bottom for the PC market.
"The semiconductor industry must prepare itself for significant changes in consumer buying behavior, technology demand patterns and the supplier landscape," said Tully. "The current recession is pushing many suppliers to the brink of ruin, and several will not survive. The emerging supply chain will be leaner and stronger, but while it reshapes to the new market realities, industry participants are exposed to considerable vendor vulnerabilities."
Source: techon.nikkeibp.co.jp
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