China June Copper Imports Seen Easing from May Record
[2009-07-08]
China's imports of unwrought copper and semi-finished copper products are expected to fall from May's record, squeezed by increased prices on the London Metal Exchange, trimming margins for spot inflows.
June's imports of refined copper by China, the world's top copper and aluminium consumer, may fall to 300,000-320,000 tonnes versus May's all-time record of 337,230 tonnes.
Imports of aluminium, including primary, alloy and semi-finished products, in June may also fall from May's imports on firm LME prices.
Primary aluminium imports are expected to exceed 200,000 tonnes in June. Imports were 259,095 tonnes in May.
The Chinese Customs will release June figures around July 10, but the inflow of refined copper and primary aluminium, the most popular types of the two metals in international and Chinese markets, will only be published in late July.
"June's imports of refined copper should be over 300,000 tonnes as the arbitrage window opened for some days in May," Zhu Yanzhong, analyst at Jinrui Futures, said. He was referring to lower cost of imports than Chinese prices.
Zhu said he expected the imports at 300,000-310,000 tonnes.
Chinese importers often book spot copper imports for delivery within few weeks and that make the arrival behind the booking time.
"Some June arrivals were booked in April when the price gaps were very good. The June import should remain high at 310,000-320,000 tonnes," said a manager at a large Chinese trading firm.
Domestic demand has stayed lukewarm since June, weighing on domestic copper prices and increasing stocks of refined copper after record imports in previous four months, analysts and traders said.
"Consumers are not keen to buy above 40,000 yuan per tonne," the manager said.
Spot refined copper traded around 39,000 yuan per tonne in Shanghai on Tuesday.
"It would be very strange if the June import was higher ," Jing Chuan, chief researcher for Great Wall Futures, said.
China is also the world's top producer of primary alumium but Chinese merchants had booked more spot primary aluminium in late May when the arbitrage window opened.
The bulk of booked metal arrived in June, traders said.
"June's imports of primary aluminium should be above 200,000 tonnes," a trader at an international trading house said.
A trading manager at a large Chinese aluminium smelter said he expected the inflow between 200,000 and 250,000 tonnes.
That estimate will be lower than May's 259,095 tonnes and a fall for the second straight month after a record figure of 362,400 tonnes in April.
After releasing aggregated June import data for unwrought copper and semi-finished copper products and unwrought aluminium and semi-finished aluminium products on July 10, Chinese authorities will publish a more detailed report several days later and full breakdowns for refined copper late this month.
June's imports of refined copper by China, the world's top copper and aluminium consumer, may fall to 300,000-320,000 tonnes versus May's all-time record of 337,230 tonnes.
Imports of aluminium, including primary, alloy and semi-finished products, in June may also fall from May's imports on firm LME prices.
Primary aluminium imports are expected to exceed 200,000 tonnes in June. Imports were 259,095 tonnes in May.
The Chinese Customs will release June figures around July 10, but the inflow of refined copper and primary aluminium, the most popular types of the two metals in international and Chinese markets, will only be published in late July.
"June's imports of refined copper should be over 300,000 tonnes as the arbitrage window opened for some days in May," Zhu Yanzhong, analyst at Jinrui Futures, said. He was referring to lower cost of imports than Chinese prices.
Zhu said he expected the imports at 300,000-310,000 tonnes.
Chinese importers often book spot copper imports for delivery within few weeks and that make the arrival behind the booking time.
"Some June arrivals were booked in April when the price gaps were very good. The June import should remain high at 310,000-320,000 tonnes," said a manager at a large Chinese trading firm.
Domestic demand has stayed lukewarm since June, weighing on domestic copper prices and increasing stocks of refined copper after record imports in previous four months, analysts and traders said.
"Consumers are not keen to buy above 40,000 yuan per tonne," the manager said.
Spot refined copper traded around 39,000 yuan per tonne in Shanghai on Tuesday.
"It would be very strange if the June import was higher ," Jing Chuan, chief researcher for Great Wall Futures, said.
China is also the world's top producer of primary alumium but Chinese merchants had booked more spot primary aluminium in late May when the arbitrage window opened.
The bulk of booked metal arrived in June, traders said.
"June's imports of primary aluminium should be above 200,000 tonnes," a trader at an international trading house said.
A trading manager at a large Chinese aluminium smelter said he expected the inflow between 200,000 and 250,000 tonnes.
That estimate will be lower than May's 259,095 tonnes and a fall for the second straight month after a record figure of 362,400 tonnes in April.
After releasing aggregated June import data for unwrought copper and semi-finished copper products and unwrought aluminium and semi-finished aluminium products on July 10, Chinese authorities will publish a more detailed report several days later and full breakdowns for refined copper late this month.
Source: Reuters
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