McCain #39;s presidential hopes hinge on swing-state shocker
[2008-12-23 17:03:34]
McCain's presidential hopes hinge on swing-state shocker
For a nation recently conditioned to nail-biting elections thatstretch from Tuesday into Wednesday and perhaps into December, thisyear offers something different.
Two days before the election, John McCain is behind in everynational poll and in polls in nearly every swing state. Barring anunforeseen incident or a well-hidden trove of voters in key statesacross the country, the Republican Arizona senator appears headedfor defeat.
While Florida and Ohio offered a dramatic coda to the past twoelections, Pennsylvania and Virginia could end the competitivestage of the race quickly this year.
Pennsylvania hasn't gone to a Republican since 1988, and Virginiahasn't gone to a Democrat since 1964. If Democratic Sen. BarackObama of Illinois carries both, as most polling now suggests hewill, McCain has no plausible path to the 270 electoral votesneeded to win the race. That is because the most conservativeestimate for Obama suggests he has secured at least 238 electoralvotes.
McCain has effectively bet his campaign on winning Pennsylvania.But despite his many visits there in recent weeks, he remainsbehind by 12 percentage points in recent polls.
"I've not seen anybody in the modern history of Pennsylvania comingback from 12 down," said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Centerfor Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College,whose polling has tracked Pennsylvania politics since 1992. "Butit's his last stand. I understand why he's here."
At the same time, McCain neglected Virginia, said Larry Sabato,director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
"They've got a particular death wish in Virginia. It's amazing,"Sabato said. "They really didn't think it was going to becompetitive."
For Obama, the electoral path is relatively simple: Win the usualDemocratic states and peel off at least one previously Republicanstate like Ohio.
By contrast, McCain has to preserve nearly every swing statePresident Bush carried four years ago, even as many of them nowlean to Obama.
Instead of closing the gap in the campaign's climactic final weeks,McCain has fallen further behind, according to an Arizona Republic analysis of registration trends, voting histories and polling datacompiled by the nonpartisan Real Clear Politics.
"Obama's going to get way more than 300 electoral votes," Sabatosaid. "The 'R' (for Republican) matters. It's a scarlet letter, andMcCain is wearing it." 2 that could settle it
McCain has concentrated much of the final two weeks of the campaignon an effort to wrest Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes fromDemocrats.
In 2004, Bush also hoped to compete for Pennsylvania. He lost thestate by 2.5 percentage points, in part because Democrats had500,000 more registered voters then than Republicans. Today,Democrats there have 1.2 million more registered voters than theGOP.
Four years ago, Democrat John Kerry led in 18 of the 23 polls takenin Pennsylvania after mid-October; three showed a tie. This year,Obama has led 53 of the 55 Pennsylvania polls taken since May. Twopolls in mid-September were tied.
Kerry's biggest lead from October to the election was 8 points inone poll. Obama has led by 10 or more points in 16 polls since thebeginning of October.
The McCain campaign notes that Obama lost the state's April primaryto Hillary Clinton.
But Obama still spent weeks campaigning in the state and set updozens of offices there. McCain, who had clinched the GOPnomination by early February, reportedly had three offices there inlate July.
Also, Obama's running mate, Joe Biden, is a Pennsylvania native andnow represents neighboring Delaware.
Virginia, meanwhile, is one of the clearest signs of the crumblingGOP electoral coalition.
Bush carried the state by 8 percentage points in each of hiselections.
For months, polls indicated that Virginia would be close this year.McCain led 15 of the 31 polls between May and September, with twoties. But since October, Obama has led all 22 polls taken in thatstate.
The change in Virginia's political loyalties lies largely in therapid growth of the state, especially in the Washington suburbs inthe north. That region has had a heavy influx of young,white-collar professionals who tend to favor Obama and Democrats.
Still, three polls last week showed McCain within 4 points inVirginia, and he and his running mate, Sarah Palin, drew one oftheir largest crowds there, 23,000. Florida, Ohio are key
Even if McCain survives winning at least one of those two states,he can't win without carrying Florida. It is almost impossible forhim to win without Ohio, and no Republican ever has. Obama,however, can win without either.
Florida typifies the all-or-nothing problem McCain now faces.
It is a state that has voted for a Democrat only once since 1980and, along with the South, has been regarded as an electoralcounterbalance to Democratic dominance in California and theNortheast.
After lagging in Florida most of the summer, Obama caught McCain inthe polls in mid- September. Recent polls suggest Obama has anarrow lead heading into Election Day.
This year, Democrats have 650,000 more registered voters in Floridathan Republicans, a margin nearly double what they had in 2000 and2004. And Blacks in the conservative northern part of the state mayvote in more sizable numbers, experts say.
In Ohio, McCain led in 20 of the 38 polls taken there between Mayand September, with two ties. Since October, Obama has led in 27 ofthe 33 polls, with one tie.
Democrats also have a sizable advantage in new voter registrations,though at least 200,000 are considered suspect by the state's GOP.Still, Democrats won big in state and congressional elections in2006.
Recent presidential history suggests McCain could still compete inboth states despite the unfavorable polls. Others lean blue, too
After that, there are a string of remaining states left, most ofwhich are trending toward Obama.
In New Hampshire, Obama has led in 26 of the 28 polls since May.The state's registration figures are nearly even after a surge forDemocrats. Still, McCain's two critical primary wins - he also wonthe state eight years ago in his first bid for the White House -and Obama's surprising primary loss there suggests it is at leastpossible for McCain to win. It was the only state that Bush won in2000 and lost in 2004.
North Carolina is another GOP mainstay that seems on the verge of ashift. Republicans have carried the state all but once since 1968,and Bush carried it by 13 points and then 12 points.
Early in this campaign, that trend seemed likely to stick: McCainled all 22 polls taken there between May and mid-September. Nearthe end of that period, he had leads of 17 and 20 points in twopolls. But after the bailout crisis, Obama has led in 22 of the 35polls, with seven ties. McCain's six leads have been 3 points orless. Only one of Obama's leads was larger than the polls' marginof error, suggesting the race still is a toss-up.
Colorado has voted Republican in every presidential election buttwo since 1952. Still, of the 30 polls taken there since September,Obama has led in 28, with one tie. Voter registration figures inthe state, where Democrats held their convention, also show a shiftaway from the Republican Party, though the GOP maintains a slimlead. And Democrats have a string of wins in state andcongressional races going back to 2004.
In Nevada, McCain has seen an early edge melt away as the campaignhas unfolded. Between May and September, McCain led in nine of the14 polls in that state. In October, Obama won 13 of the 14 polls,with one tie two weeks ago.
In 2004, Republicans had 4,000 more registered voters thanDemocrats. Today, Democrats lead by at least 80,000.
Missouri is regarded as the national bellwether for presidentialpolitics, and Bush won it by 7 points four years ago. Between Apriland late September, McCain led 14 of the 16 polls in that state.Since then, Obama has led 10 of 20 Missouri polls, with one tie.Most areas of the state are solidly Republican, but in St. Louis,Obama and the Democrats can run up lopsided returns. In lateOctober, Obama drew 100,000 to a rally in the city, suggesting thestate could be competitive.
Additionally, McCain has effectively conceded Michigan, Minnesotaand Wisconsin, none of which has voted for a Republican forpresident in 20 years.
The two states that changed from Democratic to Republican in 2004,Iowa and New Mexico, also appear safe for Obama.
West Virginia is the only competitive state where McCain hasconsistently led in the polls.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/2008/11/02/20081102swingstates1102.html [2008-11-4]
Tag : HingeFor a nation recently conditioned to nail-biting elections thatstretch from Tuesday into Wednesday and perhaps into December, thisyear offers something different.
Two days before the election, John McCain is behind in everynational poll and in polls in nearly every swing state. Barring anunforeseen incident or a well-hidden trove of voters in key statesacross the country, the Republican Arizona senator appears headedfor defeat.
While Florida and Ohio offered a dramatic coda to the past twoelections, Pennsylvania and Virginia could end the competitivestage of the race quickly this year.
Pennsylvania hasn't gone to a Republican since 1988, and Virginiahasn't gone to a Democrat since 1964. If Democratic Sen. BarackObama of Illinois carries both, as most polling now suggests hewill, McCain has no plausible path to the 270 electoral votesneeded to win the race. That is because the most conservativeestimate for Obama suggests he has secured at least 238 electoralvotes.
McCain has effectively bet his campaign on winning Pennsylvania.But despite his many visits there in recent weeks, he remainsbehind by 12 percentage points in recent polls.
"I've not seen anybody in the modern history of Pennsylvania comingback from 12 down," said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Centerfor Politics and Public Affairs at Franklin and Marshall College,whose polling has tracked Pennsylvania politics since 1992. "Butit's his last stand. I understand why he's here."
At the same time, McCain neglected Virginia, said Larry Sabato,director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
"They've got a particular death wish in Virginia. It's amazing,"Sabato said. "They really didn't think it was going to becompetitive."
For Obama, the electoral path is relatively simple: Win the usualDemocratic states and peel off at least one previously Republicanstate like Ohio.
By contrast, McCain has to preserve nearly every swing statePresident Bush carried four years ago, even as many of them nowlean to Obama.
Instead of closing the gap in the campaign's climactic final weeks,McCain has fallen further behind, according to an Arizona Republic analysis of registration trends, voting histories and polling datacompiled by the nonpartisan Real Clear Politics.
"Obama's going to get way more than 300 electoral votes," Sabatosaid. "The 'R' (for Republican) matters. It's a scarlet letter, andMcCain is wearing it." 2 that could settle it
McCain has concentrated much of the final two weeks of the campaignon an effort to wrest Pennsylvania's 21 electoral votes fromDemocrats.
In 2004, Bush also hoped to compete for Pennsylvania. He lost thestate by 2.5 percentage points, in part because Democrats had500,000 more registered voters then than Republicans. Today,Democrats there have 1.2 million more registered voters than theGOP.
Four years ago, Democrat John Kerry led in 18 of the 23 polls takenin Pennsylvania after mid-October; three showed a tie. This year,Obama has led 53 of the 55 Pennsylvania polls taken since May. Twopolls in mid-September were tied.
Kerry's biggest lead from October to the election was 8 points inone poll. Obama has led by 10 or more points in 16 polls since thebeginning of October.
The McCain campaign notes that Obama lost the state's April primaryto Hillary Clinton.
But Obama still spent weeks campaigning in the state and set updozens of offices there. McCain, who had clinched the GOPnomination by early February, reportedly had three offices there inlate July.
Also, Obama's running mate, Joe Biden, is a Pennsylvania native andnow represents neighboring Delaware.
Virginia, meanwhile, is one of the clearest signs of the crumblingGOP electoral coalition.
Bush carried the state by 8 percentage points in each of hiselections.
For months, polls indicated that Virginia would be close this year.McCain led 15 of the 31 polls between May and September, with twoties. But since October, Obama has led all 22 polls taken in thatstate.
The change in Virginia's political loyalties lies largely in therapid growth of the state, especially in the Washington suburbs inthe north. That region has had a heavy influx of young,white-collar professionals who tend to favor Obama and Democrats.
Still, three polls last week showed McCain within 4 points inVirginia, and he and his running mate, Sarah Palin, drew one oftheir largest crowds there, 23,000. Florida, Ohio are key
Even if McCain survives winning at least one of those two states,he can't win without carrying Florida. It is almost impossible forhim to win without Ohio, and no Republican ever has. Obama,however, can win without either.
Florida typifies the all-or-nothing problem McCain now faces.
It is a state that has voted for a Democrat only once since 1980and, along with the South, has been regarded as an electoralcounterbalance to Democratic dominance in California and theNortheast.
After lagging in Florida most of the summer, Obama caught McCain inthe polls in mid- September. Recent polls suggest Obama has anarrow lead heading into Election Day.
This year, Democrats have 650,000 more registered voters in Floridathan Republicans, a margin nearly double what they had in 2000 and2004. And Blacks in the conservative northern part of the state mayvote in more sizable numbers, experts say.
In Ohio, McCain led in 20 of the 38 polls taken there between Mayand September, with two ties. Since October, Obama has led in 27 ofthe 33 polls, with one tie.
Democrats also have a sizable advantage in new voter registrations,though at least 200,000 are considered suspect by the state's GOP.Still, Democrats won big in state and congressional elections in2006.
Recent presidential history suggests McCain could still compete inboth states despite the unfavorable polls. Others lean blue, too
After that, there are a string of remaining states left, most ofwhich are trending toward Obama.
In New Hampshire, Obama has led in 26 of the 28 polls since May.The state's registration figures are nearly even after a surge forDemocrats. Still, McCain's two critical primary wins - he also wonthe state eight years ago in his first bid for the White House -and Obama's surprising primary loss there suggests it is at leastpossible for McCain to win. It was the only state that Bush won in2000 and lost in 2004.
North Carolina is another GOP mainstay that seems on the verge of ashift. Republicans have carried the state all but once since 1968,and Bush carried it by 13 points and then 12 points.
Early in this campaign, that trend seemed likely to stick: McCainled all 22 polls taken there between May and mid-September. Nearthe end of that period, he had leads of 17 and 20 points in twopolls. But after the bailout crisis, Obama has led in 22 of the 35polls, with seven ties. McCain's six leads have been 3 points orless. Only one of Obama's leads was larger than the polls' marginof error, suggesting the race still is a toss-up.
Colorado has voted Republican in every presidential election buttwo since 1952. Still, of the 30 polls taken there since September,Obama has led in 28, with one tie. Voter registration figures inthe state, where Democrats held their convention, also show a shiftaway from the Republican Party, though the GOP maintains a slimlead. And Democrats have a string of wins in state andcongressional races going back to 2004.
In Nevada, McCain has seen an early edge melt away as the campaignhas unfolded. Between May and September, McCain led in nine of the14 polls in that state. In October, Obama won 13 of the 14 polls,with one tie two weeks ago.
In 2004, Republicans had 4,000 more registered voters thanDemocrats. Today, Democrats lead by at least 80,000.
Missouri is regarded as the national bellwether for presidentialpolitics, and Bush won it by 7 points four years ago. Between Apriland late September, McCain led 14 of the 16 polls in that state.Since then, Obama has led 10 of 20 Missouri polls, with one tie.Most areas of the state are solidly Republican, but in St. Louis,Obama and the Democrats can run up lopsided returns. In lateOctober, Obama drew 100,000 to a rally in the city, suggesting thestate could be competitive.
Additionally, McCain has effectively conceded Michigan, Minnesotaand Wisconsin, none of which has voted for a Republican forpresident in 20 years.
The two states that changed from Democratic to Republican in 2004,Iowa and New Mexico, also appear safe for Obama.
West Virginia is the only competitive state where McCain hasconsistently led in the polls.
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