China-Japan Export & Import Value Up YOY for the 3rd Month in July 2016;
Note Japan’s Economic Stimulus Effect on Bilateral Trade
According to China Customs statistics, in January-July 2016, China’s trade with Japan stood at CNY 983.57 billion, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year (YOY similarly hereinafter), accounting for 7.4% of China’s total export-import value, the proportion rising by 0.2 percentage point. Therein, China’s export to Japan slightly dropped by 0.2% to CNY 469.78 billion; import from Japan increased by 1.7% to CNY 513.79 billion; its trade deficit expanded by 27.7% to CNY 44.01 billion.
Ⅰ. Main features of China’s export and import with Japan this July:
1. July export-import value rose for the third month in a row YOY. Since May 2016, the export-import value has been YOY upward, instead of previous YOY decrease, for three consecutive months. In July alone, the export-import value totaled CNY 148.3 billion, up 2.2% YOY and down 1.2% MOM: therein, export to Japan reached CNY 69.1 billion, up 2% YOY and up 0.9% MOM; import from Japan reached CNY 79.2 billion, up 2.5% YOY and down 2.9% MOM. (See the chart below.)
2. Ordinary trade value rose instead of previous drop, and processing trade value dropped in proportion.
3. Export of electromechanical products dropped in proportion, while export of labor-intensive products grew faster than the overall export.
4. Integrated circuit and automobile imports increased largely, while LCD import decreased.
See the table below：
Ⅱ. Main causes of consecutive YOY rise in the export and import since May 2016:
1. CNY-to-Yen exchange rate went down, beneficial to China’s exports to Japan.
2. Part of earthquake-damaged production recovered in Japan, bringing more imports of integrated circuits and automobiles from there.
Ⅲ. Notable Problems and Relevant Suggestions:
It is hard to be optimistic about Japan’s new economic stimulus measures, the country’s recovery still appearing weak, and it is uncertain how the economic stimulus will affect China-Japan trade later.