Hebei Christmas Goods Export Down in Jan-July 2016

According to China Customs statistics, during January-July 2016, Hebei Province exported Christmas goods worth CNY 19.49 Million, down 36.8% year-on-year (YOY); for July alone, the export value was CNY 7.83 Million, down 59.3% YOY, up 71.1% month-on-month (MOM).

Characteristics of Hebei Christmas Goods Export in Jan-July:

(1)    All was exported by ordinary trade mode.

(2)    State-owned enterprises kept growing in the export.

During January-July, Hebei Provincial private enterprises made the export worth 13.3 million yuan, down 46% YOY; state-owned enterprises made the export worth 3.84 million yuan, up 4.8% YOY; foreign-invested enterprises made 2.35 million yuan, down 6.4% YOY.

(3)   Cangzhou, Shijiazhuang, Hengshui, and Langfang were the major exporting cities, Cangzhou and Shijiazhuang in the lead with growing value.

During January-July, Cangzhou exported Christmas goods worth 8.1 million yuan, up 2.5% YOY; Shijiazhuang exported 5.04 million yuan, up 8.1% YOY; Hengshui exported 3.89 million yuan, down 65.6% YOY; Langfang exported 2.42 million yuan, down 64% YOY.

(4)    Bigger decline in exports to the USA

The exports to EU totaled 16.27 million yuan, down 16.5% YOY; therein, export to Germany reached 5.67 million yuan, down 17%; export to the Netherlands reached 2.95 million yuan, down 26.3%. And the exports to USA reached 1.966 million yuan, down 76.8% YOY.

Notable Problems and Relevant Suggestions

(1) Uncertain economic outlook and economic recession in European and American trading partners caused temporary downturn in the export of Christmas goods.

On August 12, the United States released its July retail-sales and PPI data, which are unsatisfactory as to impact US financial market. According to the latest forecast by the Federal Reserve, the US economic growth will be only 2% in 2016 and will continue at a low rate. Compared with US data, Eurostat issued a GDP correction value for Euro zone for the second quarter, also revealing the reality of economic slowdown.

(2) China's manufacturing industry is under the challenges such as rising labor cost and aging population.

 

On July 2, the ChinaInfo100 platform held "China Manufacturing Competitiveness Seminar" in Beijing. In this seminar, ChinaInfo100 and Deloitte jointly made the "2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Indexes" report.

The report indicates that, during the ten years since 2005, labor cost in China has risen by five-fold and, compared with the year of 1995, the cost is fifteen-fold more; the labor cost surge has cut down cost arbitrage between China and developed economies, making some foreign-owned enterprises transfer their manufacturing in China to lower-cost countries or back to their homelands.

In addition, the report makes clear that Chinese aging population is another worry for manufacturers to invest in China. Over the past two decades, annual growth of Chinese labor force (15-64 years old) turned negative for the first time. By 2030, the young population (15-39 years old) will likely decline in proportion from 38% of 2013 to 28%.

According to China Customs statistics, during January-July 2016, Hebei Province exported Christmas goods worth CNY 19.49 Million, down 36.8% year-on-year (YOY)