Expert Analysis on 2009 New Tendency and Developing Trend for Import and Export

According to the customs statistics, the total export & import volume increased by 24.4 % from January to October, among which the export value grew by 21.9%, declining by 4.6% as compared with that at last year; the import value grew by 27.6 %, increasing by 7.8% as compared with that at last year. The export growth was lower than import growth by 5.7%, which was shortened by 1.1% as compared with that from January to September. From January to October, the trade surplus of USD 21.6 billion was realized and increased by 1.3 %.
 

1.      Net export is obviously helpless for stimulating the economy. The export is deemed as the major driving force of China's economic growth. According to calculation from National Bureau of Statistics of China, the export accounted for 37% of GDP in 2007. The freightage and service-based net export contributed to the GDP growth of 21.5% and drive GDP by 2.6%. In the first half of this year, the freightage and service-based net export contributed to the GDP growth of 4.9%, declining by 16.8% as compared with that at the previous year, so that only the economic growth of 0.5% was achieved;

2.      The export still declines. The export of primary products and some resources-based products was dramatically influenced. In October, the export trade continuously slowed down. As compared with that at the same month of last year, the value of export was increased by 19.2%, declining by 3.1%. So, 2.3% thereof was declined in terms of link relative ratio and 3.4% lower than that for import. The processing trade has the largest amplitude of drop, increasing by 8.5 % and declining by 12.7% in October.

3.      The Import trade falls after a rise. Import for part of the commodities was decreased in terms of both volume and value. In October, the import trade value was increased by 15.6% year on year, which was not only 9.9% lower than that at the same month of last year, but 5.7% lower than that at last month, so as to be the lowest figure for import since this year. The export growth was 3.6% higher than import growth, so as to widen by 3.4% as compared with that at last month. The foreign trade surplus in this month reached USD 35.24 billion, increasing by 29.8%. For the import trade, the processing trade fell quickest and increased only by 1.9% in this month, drop by 16.6% as compared with that at the same month of last year. The general trade was increased by 30.1%, decreasing by 7.1%.

4.      Import and export of traditional commodity slowed down. First, the export of labor intensive products such as clothing, toy and plastic products etc. slowed down. According to China Import and Export Fair in this autumn, the orders for labor intensive products such as textile and clothing at the third stage were dramatically decreased. So, the export in the coming year is not good enough. Second, the import of some resources-based products such as textile material, paper & paper board, billet and blocker-type forging were continuously decreased. Third, import and export of electromechanical products and high-tech products grew smoothly.

5.      The trade surplus for single month sets a new historical high. The accumulated trade surplus rises after a fall. Since July, the trade surplus has been continuously increased for a single month. The growth thereof is constantly expanded. In October, the trade surplus reached USD 35.24 billion, increasing by USD 8.1 billon as compared with that at last year, so as to set a new historical high. The growth thereof was 29.8 % year on year, which was 7.6% higher than that in September. Meanwhile, the decrease of accumulated foreign trade surplus was continuously reduced. In October, the accumulated surplus was changed from decline to increase. From January to October, the foreign trade surplus was accumulated as USD 215.99 billion, increasing by USD 2.74 billion as compared with that at the previous year, up by 1.3%, while decreasing by 2.7 % from January to September.

6.      The bilateral trade between emerging markets and China is explosively increased. Among the bilateral trade between principal trade partners and China, the bilateral trade between US and China slows down, while the bilateral trade between India and China is increased quickly. The bilateral trade between China and emerging markets such as India, Brazil and Argentina is quickly increased, so as to partially fill the space left by the advanced economies, particularly, bilateral trade between India and China is explosively increased.