Nature Rubber’s Import Volume and Price Rise in China from January to October Th

Source: General Administration of Customs' Website

According to customs statistics, 1.449 million tons of natural rubber was imported into China from January to October this year, increased by 7.6% as compared with the same period last year (similarly hereinafter), the increase rate of which rose 5.2 percentage points. The import value thereof reached USD 3.81 billion, increased by 45.2%, and the average import price was USD 2629/ton, increased by 34.9%. The features thereof mainly focus on:

I.       Recently, the average import price of natural rubber has been somewhat declining. In this year, the average import price thereof to China maintained a rising momentum, which climaxed up to USD 2998/ton in August, but in the successive two months, the price was declining. In October, the average import price dropped to USD 2753/ton, the link relative ratio of which was decreased by 5.4% (see the following diagram).

II.      The vast majority is imported from ASEAN. From January to October, 1.426 million tons of natural rubber was imported from ASEAN, increased by 6.5%, which accounted for 98.4% of the total import volume thereof in China.

III.    Natural rubber is mainly imported via the processing trade, but the import thereof via the general trade is substantially increased. From January to October, 945,000 tons of natural rubber was imported to China via the processing trade, increased by 2.2%, which accounted for 65.2% of the total import value thereof during the same period; in the meantime, 227,000 tons of natural rubber was imported to China via the general trade, increased by 11.6%.

IV.     Its import volume in Shandong Province accounts for 40% and above; also, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong Province all import more than 100,000 tons of natural rubber. From January to October, Shandong enterprises imported 624,000 tons of natural rubber, increased by 15.2%, which accounted for 43.1% of the total import volume in China during the same period. In the meanwhile, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong Province respectively imported natural rubber of 143,000 tons, 127,000 tons and 102,000 tons; the former two provinces' import volumes were increased by 5.2% and 23.8%, but Guangdong's import volume was decreased by 7.6%. The total volume thereof in these three provinces accounted for 25.6% of the total in China.

Since last year, US dollars have continuously depreciated, so a great deal of funds in US dollars are pouring into the international primary commodity markets, thus forming a huge speculative purchasing demand, which motivates a lasting rise in the price of natural rubber. Since the second half of this year, influenced by the aggravated world financial crisis and a dramatic slump of international crude oil price, the prices of natural rubber in the domestic and overseas markets have taken a sudden turn. Just take 23^rd September to 16^th October as an example, the futures price of natural rubber in the Tokyo Commodity Exchange for Industry in Japan dropped from 303.47 yen/kg to 161.74 yen/kg, the decrease rate of which was as high as 47%; in the domestic markets, the price for No.-5 standard Chinese rubber dropped to around 18,000 Yuan/ton from the highest of 27,890 Yuan/ton in August, decreased almost 10000 Yuan per ton. Thus, the International Rubber Consortium has enlisted the issue of restraining the letdown of natural rubber prices into the agenda, which would take measures to interfere with the pricing trend thereof at any time.

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