China’s grain export falls and import kept steady in the first 3 quarters this y

Source: www.customs.gov.cn

According to the statistical data from customs, China has exported 2.994 million tons of grain (including corn and corn powder, bean, starch tuber and potato), valuing USD 1.64 billion, with respective year-on-year drops (same in the following) of 67.3% and 27.1%. In the same period, China has imported 31.81 million tons of grain, with value of USD 18.53 billion, respectively growing 16.2% and 1.2 times.

In the first 3 quarters of this year, the main features of China’s grain import and export include:

I.      The export volume is high in the beginning and low at the end, the monthly year-on-year drop exceeds 50%. As influenced by the quota issuing progress, in the 1^st quarter, China’s monthly grain export is obviously high. While in the following two quarters, the monthly year-on-year drop has tendency of large margin, with falling margin of over 50%, the average monthly export is only 236,000 ton, with a large-margin drop of 55.3% compared with the average export volume in the 1^st quarter. (refer to the following figure).

II.     General trade is the main mode of import and export trade. In the first three quarters of this year, China exported grain of 2.608 million ton in the mode of general trade, with a drop of 69.9%, accounting for 97.1% of total grain export in the same period. The export in frontier small-volume trade is 248,000 ton, dropped by 32.1%. In the same period, China has imported grain of 29.93 million ton in the mode of general trade, with a growth of 14.3%, accounting for 94.1% of total import volume of grain in China.

III.    Asian area is the main export market, the main source of import is US and Brazil. In the first three quarters of this year, China has exported totally 1.82 million tons of grain to Asian area, dropped by 77.6%, accounting for 60.8% of China’s grain export in the same period. In which, South Korea, ASEAN countries and Japan are listed the first 3 countries in China’s grain export, the exports to them are respectively 408,000, 38100 and 37900 tons, dropped by respectively 90.3, 81.5% and 66.7%, the three have totally account for 39% of China’s total grain export.

Meanwhile, Chins has imported 10.39 million tons of grain from US, increased by 26%; and 10.38 million ton from Brazil, the two accounting for 65.3% of China’s total grain import in the same period.

IV.    The export of wheat and corn have dropped acutely, bean import has the dominant position, the import and export prices of various grain have increased by large margin. In the first three quarters of this year, China has exported wheat and corn of respectively 272,000 ton and 187000 ton, respectively dropping 87.1% and 95.9%. Meanwhile, China has imported 28.70 million tons of bean, increased by 32.3%，accounting for 90.2% to total grain import in the same period. Meanwhile, in the first 3 quarters of this year, the average import and export price of various grains has increased to different extents compare with the same period of last year. In terms of export, the average price growths of export of various grains in the first 3 quarters have increased by different degree compared with the same period last year. In terms of export, the export price growths of bean, corn and wheat are all over 50%. In terms of import, the average import price of bean increased by 79.5%, and that of wheat increased by 1.4 times (refer to the following sheet).

Quantity and price of main grain import and export in the first 3 quarters of 2008 in China

It worth noticing that, in 2005-2007, the grain planting area in China has kept relatively stable, the grain purchase growth is slow, but farming cost increased by a large margin, farmers’ enthusiasm is obviously influenced. According to the average production cost of 3 grains, namely 376.65 yuan/mu, the production cost per mu will increase by 87.8 yuan in 2008. Though the direct subsidy of agricultural cost from national finance dept. increased by large margin of 73.9% in 2008, however, the absolute subsidy increased is only 17 yuan, the subsidy strength is not enough, and the problem of income decrease in planting has not been effectively solved[1]. Meanwhile, the four global grain merchants ADM, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus have quickened their pace on Chinese market, the supply chain including grain source, storage, transportation, processing and sales is continuously improved, and their influence on the control right and price setting right in the field of grain production and processing in China is becoming more and more obvious.

Suggestion (omitted)