Steady Growth of China’s Crude Oil Import in the First Three Quarters of the Yea

Source: General Administration of Customs Website

According to Customs statistics, China imported 140 million tons of crude oils in the first three quarters of the year, registering a growth of 8.8% over that of the same period last year (the same below), with a total import value of USD 105.2 billion and a mean import price of USD 779/t that grow by 85.5% and 70.4% respectively.

Meanwhile, China exported 2.798 million tons of crude oils, registering a drop of 11.3%, with a total export value of USD 2.15 billion and a mean export price of USD 768.3/t that grow by 73.9% and 96.1% respectively.

China’s imports and exports of crude oils have the following main characteristics in the first three quarters of the year:

I.       Apparent drop of mean import price and substantial increase of export volume of crude oils in September: In September, China imported 15.03 million tons of crude oils, registering a growth of 10%, with a mean import price of USD 834.8/t that grows by 64.3% than that of the same period last year and drops by 12% than that of the previous month. This is the first month in the year for the mean import price to fall compared with that of the previous month (please see the following figure). In September, there was an apparent increase in the export quantity of crude oils to 577,000 tons, registering a growth of 140% over that of the same period last year and 44.4% over that of the previous month, with a total value of USD 450 million that grows by three folds. The mean export price is USD 784.2/t that grows by 68.6%.

II.      General trade is the main mode of trade for imports and exports: in the first three quarters, China imported 120 million tons of crude oils through general trade, registering a growth of 13.7% and accounting for 90.5% of China’s total crude oil imports. China imported 7,617 million tons of crude oils through processing trade, registering a drop of 25%. In the meantime, China exported 2.192 million tons of crude oils through general trade, registering a drop of 23% and accounting for 78.3% of China’s total crude oil exports in the same period. China exported 606,000 tons of crude oils as bonded-warehouse entry-exit cargos, registering a growth of 96.8%.

III.    Saudi Arabia, Angola and Iran are the top 3 sources of imports and Japan, Korea and the US are the main destinations of exports. In the first three quarters, China imported 25,220,000t, 23,860,000t and 16,970,000t crude oils from Saudi Arabia, Angola and Iran respectively, registering a growth of 30%, 35.6% and 12.6% respectively. The imports from the foregoing three countries amount to 66,050,000 tons that account for 48.9% of China’s total crude oil imports. In the meantime, China exported 841,000t, 510,000t and 487,000t crude oils to Japan, Korea and the US respectively, registering a growth of 230%, a drop of 40% and a growth of 60.9% respectively. Exports to the foregoing three countries amount to 1,838,000 tons that account for 65.7% of China’s total crude oil exports.

The international oil price exceeded USD 100/barrel for the first time on January 2, 2008 and continued to rocket in the half year thereafter until it reached its height of USD 147/barrel on July 11. After that, it plummeted suddenly and continuously. On October 10, the WTI crude oil future price on New York Commodity Exchange fell below USD 80/barrel, the lowest since September 10, 2007 and just half the highest price. International Energy Agency recently publicized one report stating that the global petroleum demand would possibly fall to lowest level in the last 15 years due to the financial crisis and slowdown of economic activities and that the growth would just remain low in 2009 with a daily demand falling by nearly 40% to just 700,000 barrels.

Proposals (omitted)