The Supply of Petroleum, Electric Power and Coal Will Exceed the Demand in 2009

In the first two months of 2009, influenced by macro-economy, the consumption of petroleum, electric power and coal fell in a recession. At present, according to the report by National Development and Reform Commission, the growth of consumption on product oil, electric power and coal is limited and the supply exceeds demand generally.

The demand for petroleum may rise slightly

In accordance with National Development and Reform Commission, influenced by various factors, the changes of supply and demand for domestic product oil is instability. It is forecasted that the growth of consumption on product oil will be in a lower level, lowering than that in the same period of 2008.

Forecasted by the world largest energy consulting company-WoodMackenzie, because of the recession of Asia resulted from the global economic recession, the growth of demand for China crude oil may be only 0.3 percent, that is to say 27000 barrels. At present, in accordance with International Energy Agency, the rate of growth of demand for Petroleum in China is 0.7% in 2009, which is lower than 20 percent of that in recently years.

A staff in metallurgical refinery of Guangdong said the headquarter of Sinopec give a notice to require 8 enterprises such as Gaoqiao sinopec make a preparation to export product oil in March, mainly for diesel oil but the quantity is unclearly.

Forecasted by National Development and Research Commission, with the effect from various measures of enlarging investment, increasing domestic demand and promoting growth, the consumption on product will recovery and the conflict between supply and demand will be eased.

The demand for electric power is higher in the first period but lower later

According to the National Development and Reform Commission, the supply and demand of electric power takes on supply exceeding demand periodically in 2009. But influenced by many uncertain factors, the supply of electric power will become tighten during the low water period in some area or summit of using electricity in Summer.

A report from Chinese Academy of Science shows that influenced by various factors, the demand for electric power will slow down sharply, the throughput of electric strengthen, the time for power generating shorten and the electricity surplus. Meanwhile, influenced by the phenomenon of insufficient electric power supply for downstream industry, the price of electricity will be stability in 2009.

According to the relevant data, the using of electricity by the whole society slides 12.88% in January 2009 and first takes on negative growth, while the volume of electric power in national scale fell 12.30% and created negative growth in continuously 4 months.

Although the increase of electric power is expected to reach 5% in 2009, the first and second quarter of 2009 will still be the most difficult period for the growth of electric power, even takes on negative growth, said the secretary of China Power Association Wang Yonggan.

But he also points that in the third quarter of 2009, the demand for electricity will increase in succession especially in North China, East China and South China, which may promote or influence the growth of electricity using in Middle China and West area of China. The trend of demand for electricity takes on a phenomenon of lower in the first period but higher in the second period.

The growth of demand for coal may slow down

The National Development and Research Commission said, Generally speaking, the demand for coal in 2009 is stability, the capacity of supply increases and supply for steam coal is sufficient. But for some structure conflict and instable factors, the supply will be tighten in the midseason.
According to the official in National Development and Reform Commission, the demand for coal will be increase in 2009, but the pace will slow down.
Influenced by International financial crisis, the recession of electric power, steel, building materials and chemical industry which closely related to coal industry, makes the demand for coal become weaken.

According to the senior analyst of China coal market, the growth of the output of coal in 2009 is lower than that in 2008, and the scope of growth between 5% to 10% and the total output of 2.85 billion tons.