Economist: Latest truck data consistent with a recession

The American Trucking Associations' said its seasonally adjusted for-hire truck tonnage index decreased 0.9 percent in September.

It is the third consecutive month-to-month drop, and ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said the recent decreases in truck tonnage are consistent with a recession. Costello forecasts a recession beginning in the 2008 third quarter and through the first quarter of 2009.

I anticipate truck freight volumes to continue to fall before they improve, Costello said. It is a tough freight market, and there is nothing on the horizon that says this will change anytime soon.

The index fell 1.6 percent in August and 0.9 percent in July. In September, the seasonally adjusted tonnage index equaled 112.6 (2000 = 100), its lowest level since October 2007.

The ATA notes that trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing nearly 70 percent of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods.