Survey: crude oil may rise on supply threats

Crude oil may rise next week because of threats to supply from Iran and Nigeria and falling stockpiles in the U.S., the biggest energy-consuming country. Prices will rise through July 18, the most bullish response since December 2006, said fifteen of 24 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Five of the respondents, or 21 percent, said oil will drop and four forecast little change. Last week 54 percent said futures would increase. Prices rose after Iran test-fired missiles in the Persian Gulf and a Nigerian militant group said it will end a cease-fire this week. The increase accelerated when prices breached a level that triggered computer-generated buying programs. An Energy Department report on July 9 showed that U.S. crude-oil stockpiles fell for the seventh time in eight weeks.

"There's an a la carte menu of bullish factors out there and weaker demand is the only thing on the bearish side of the ledger," said Peter Beutel, president of energy consultant Cameron Hanover Inc. in New Canaan, Connecticut. "Nigeria, Iran, the weak dollar, potential storms, the charts, crude-oil stocks are all supporting prices."

U.S. gasoline demand averaged 9.3 million barrels a day in the past four weeks, down 2.1 percent from a year earlier, the Energy Department said on July 9.

Crude oil for August delivery fell 21 cents to $145.08 a barrel this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures reached $147.27 a barrel today, the highest since trading began in 1983.

Last week was the first time in 25 weeks that respondents were bullish. The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 49 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.