Expert Analysis on 2009 New Tendency and Developing Trend for Import and Export

As per the aggregate analysis, it is anticipated that China's total export and import volume will reach USD 2.6 trillion in 2008, increasing by around 20% year on year. In 2009, the labile factors will continue to grow. The uncertainties involved in the world grow in number will affect China's import and export. However, opportunities shall be still more than challenges.

 

Due to such negative factors as letdown of world economy, financial crisis in USA, speed-down of China's economy, RMB revaluation, decline of investment rate in major industries as well as foreign trade protectionism, China's export has declined obviously, profit of enterprise has been seriously decreased and the trade environment has been continuously deteriorated since this year. For the foreign trade in the previous 10 months, China's import and export situation is good in general. However, the global financial market is difficult to recover within a short period of time. So, the demands from international market will continuously slow down.
 

I.      According to the current economic situation, due to the restriction from many factors, China's economic development is faced with very austere international economic environment. The external demand always plays a vital role in the economic development. However, now its holding power is weakened and the rate of contribution is lowered.

II.     Close connection exists between China's export growth and world economy growth. The World Bank anticipates that the growth rates of world economy for this year and next year will be respectively 2.7% and 2.5%. Particularly, the developed countries such as the United States' economy will obviously slow down, so as to decrease the demands for commodities from China. According to related calculation, if the United States' GDP declines by 1%, China's export growth will decrease by 4.75%; if the EU's economic growth declines by 1%, China's export of electronic products to EU will be lowered by 1.5%; the export of textile & clothing will also drop by 0.5%.

III.    As calculated, in the long run, the stable relation exists between investment & export and growth of Chinese economy, so that the investment and export play a positive role in the economic growth. The export is important to China's economic growth. If the export increases by 1%, the economic growth will increase by 0.8150%; also, if the domestic investment increases by 1%, the economic growth will increase by 0.4994 %. It shows that China's economic growth obviously features "Capital Widening" and "Export Orientation".

IV.    Recently, in order to prevent the decline of domestic economy, China has launched a plurality of measures to stimulate the export and encourage the import. For instance, the export rebate rate has been raised for three times at the beginning of August, November and December. At the beginning of December, the export tariff for part of commodities will be lowered. Most Chinese export enterprises in the financial "Severe Winter" are processing-oriented. So, big challenges have to be faced for overcoming the long financial crisis. Thus, the enterprises shall strengthen the management and innovation as well as change the product structure and practice skills diligently. Meanwhile, according to the change of international market, both the marketing policy and marketing subjects shall be changed.