China Export Leading Indicator Adjusted High-Profile This June, Export Growth to Be Faster in Quarter 3

This June, China's Export Leading Indicator (ELI) was 42.2, down by 0.1 from the high of this May. Over the second quarter, the average ELI reached 42.1, a considerable rise from 41.6 of the first quarter. Now it is expected that the third quarter will see China's export growth faster than the second quarter, with the monthly growth therein to fluctuate somewhat however.

According to an online survey on nearly 2,000 export enterprises of China, this June, China's Export Management Index was 42.8, down by 0.7 from May; New Export Order Index, Export Managers Confidence Index, and Export Enterprises Composite Cost Index reached respectively 46.3, 47.9, and 22.1, down by 1.0, 0.4 and 0.8 from May respectively.

Seen from the enterprise types, this June, the Export Management Indexes of large, medium and small enterprises were respectively 46.5, 43.6 and 40.4, down by 1.2, 0.8 and 0.5 month-on-month respectively.

Specifically regarding export orders, the enterprises indicating increase in new order value accounted for 30.3%, less by 0.2 percentage point month-on-month; those indicating year-on-year reduction therein accounted for 39.6%, more by 1.2 percentage points month-on-month; those indicating no change therein accounted for 30.1%.

Regarding export confidence, the survey shows that the enterprises indicating "not optimistic" about the next 2-3 months of export situation accounted for 34.9%, more by 0.4 percentage point month-on-month; the enterprises indicating "optimistic" about it accounted for 25.8%, less by 0.9 percentage point month-on-month.

Regarding export costs, the survey shows that the enterprises indicating year-on-year increase in export composite cost accounted for 61.6%, more by 1.2 percentage points month-on-month, ending the reduction trend for five consecutive months; those indicating year-on-year parity therein accounted for 33.6%, and the remaining 4.8% reported year-on-year reduction.

According to the survey in itemized costs, e.g. in labor cost and raw materials cost, the enterprises revealing increases accounted for 65.2% and 46.7% respectively, more by 0.7 percentage point and 1.2 percentage points month-on-month respectively; additionally, the same as May, 38.2% of the respondents revealed increase in foreign exchange cost.