China Export Leading Index Still Down for January 2015

For January 2015, China's Export Leading Index (ELI) reached 38.6, down month-on-month by 1.5 from last December, declining for four consecutive months, which signals certain stress on China's export growth in the first quarter and the early second quarter of 2015. As revealed by an online questionnaire survey, for January, China's Export Management Index reached 41.2, up by 0.4 from last December; its New Export Order Index reached 44, up by 0.9 from last December, and Export Enterprises Comprehensive Cost Index was 26, up by 0.7 from last December, while Export Managers Confidence Index was 44.7, down by 0.5 from last December.

1. Rise in the Export Management Indexes of medium and large enterprises: For January, China's medium and large enterprises made their Export Management Indexes respectively at 39.8 and 43, respectively up by 0.5 and 0.7 from last December, while that of the small enterprises was down to 38.9 by 0.4 month-on-month.

2. More enterprises revealing year-on-year (YOY) rise in their new order value: Shown by the online survey, for January, the enterprises revealing YOY rise in their new order value accounted for 29.9%, more by 0.7 percentage points than last December; the enterprises revealing YOY fall in their new order value accounted for 43.5%, less by 0.8 percentage point than last December; and those revealing no change therein accounted for 26.6%.

3. More enterprises not optimistic about their exports in next 2-3 months: Shown by the online survey, the enterprises expressing "optimistic" about their exports in the next 2-3 months accounted for 26%, less by 0.5 percentage point than last December; and those expressing "not optimistic" thereabout accounted for 38%, more by 1.0 percentage point than last December.

4. Slightly less respondents revealing cost rise: Shown by the online survey, the enterprises revealing YOY rise in their export comprehensive cost accounted for 57.3%, less by 1.1 percentage points than last December; those revealing YOY evenness therein accounted for 34.9%; and those revealing YOY fall therein accounted for 7.8%.

According to the survey in itemized costs for January, the enterprises revealing increase in their labor cost accounted for 62.7%, less by 0.8 percentage point than last December; those revealing increase in their raw materials cost accounted for 38.6%, less by 2.9 percentage points than last December; and those revealing increase in their foreign-exchange cost accounted for 33.8%, less by 2.8 percentage points than last December.